Atlantic Council Issue Brief, October 2024

Accelerating Climate Intervention Research to Improve Climate Security

This issue brief, authored by the Atlantic Council and SilverLining, examines solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches and research needs, the potential risks and benefits of SRM as a near-term climate intervention, U.S. and international policy options for governance and decision-making, global security issues, and equity considerations.



The present climate policy portfolio leaves a critical gap in society’s ability to adequately respond to near- and mid-term risks and impacts, including potentially devastating tipping events in human and natural systems.

Increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere, or solar radiation modification (SRM), has the potential to help reduce climate change risks and improve global safety and security. Escalating climate extremes have recently elevated the global dialogue on SRM. Emerging research programs and recent official publications from the United Nations, the European Union, and the U.S. government have recommended scientific research and assessment.

SRM has considerable uncertain risks and does not address the underlying cause of climate change or counter all of its impacts. Substantial research is needed to understand the potential benefits and risks of SRM and to inform its governance. Global-scale SRM may be accessible to multiple actors in the near-term, making this research critical to global and regional security.

Photo: Patrick Cullis, NOAA / CIRES.

Elements of effective governance and decision-making on SRM include: 

  • Open, transparent, internationally cooperative scientific research.

  • International cooperation on scientific research, with funding and technology support for developing countries to more equitably participate in research and decision-making.

  • Establishment of a robust scientific assessment function to review and report on the efficacy, feasibility, risks, and benefits of different approaches and the requirements for monitoring and reporting.

  • Scientific input to, and international dialogue on, the requirements for SRM governance.
    • International governance and regulation by an international body with universal participation, equitable influence among countries, and the ability to monitor and enforce activity, such as the Montreal Protocol.

  • Advancing consideration of SRM in the array of intergovernmental bodies relevant to this issue.

  • Development of robust assessment, monitoring, and regulatory functions at the national level, particularly for those countries at the forefront of research. These can also inform international governance efforts.


Recommendations on immediate next steps: 

For the Global Community:

  • Support international scientific cooperation on research and observations with transparent access to data, tools, and findings.

  • Advance scientific assessment of SRM in qualified expert bodies (e.g., the Montreal Protocol, World Climate Research Programme).

  • Establish a fund for developing countries’ research on the impacts of near-term climate change with and without SRM, to foster more equitable participation.

  • Promote science-based governance, decision- making, and enforcement mechanisms that function through or similarly to the Montreal Protocol.

For Group of Seven Members:

  • Undertake an ambitious agenda of research on the potential for SRM to reduce near-term climate risks through a program that delivers the information and capabilities to support robust scientific assessment within five years.

  • Establish a mandate for monitoring, reporting, and projecting the composition of the atmosphere.

  • Increase basic climate research funding to be more commensurate with the value of better information and with the scale of other climate- related funding, with emphasis on atmospheric observations and modeling.

  • Support open international availability of data, models, and scientific findings.

“To bring global temperatures down quickly, the only button we can push - that we know about - is solar climate intervention. There are many uncertainties, which is why scientists should be studying the issue carefully.”

David Fahey

Co-Chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol and Director of the Chemical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA

Previous
Previous

Ensuring a Safe Climate