U.S. Climate Policy Must Address Near-Term Climate Risk: SilverLining's Recommendations To The Biden-Harris Administration
Source: Christopher Michel
The below blog post was published alongside SilverLining's policy recommendations to the incoming Biden Administration.
New leadership in the United States presents a powerful opportunity for efforts to combat climate change. The Biden-Harris administration's forward-looking climate action plan lays the groundwork for significant progress. We at SilverLining are excited for this progress and have shared a series of recommendations to the President-elect and his team on near-term imperatives for comprehensive climate policy.
Climate change poses near-term risks to the safety and security of the nation that are not adequately addressed by current measures for reducing and removing greenhouse gases. The projected economic cost of climate impacts and extremes is staggering—including estimates of $180 billion due to recent western wildfires and hundreds of billions of dollars in damage from storms and flooding.
Vulnerable communities are suffering from climate impacts now and are projected to face devastating conditions over the next few decades, before efforts to reduce emissions can take effect. Climate justice requires protecting vulnerable people from the worst effects of climate change while we work toward a sustainable future.
At the same time, warming is causing parts of the earth system to reach dangerous points of instability, approaching "tipping points" where these systems could change abruptly in ways that accelerate warming out of human control. Climate models have trouble representing these dynamics, so these risks may be higher than we think. There is an urgent need for investment in both climate research to help forecast these changes as well as possible interventions to prevent them.
The Biden-Harris administration is already planning to rejoin The Paris Agreement, and this is a critical first step in major efforts to address climate change. Plans for a clean energy future are powerful steps too. In addition to expanding our portfolio of climate mitigation tools, it is important that our leaders commit to ensuring near-term climate safety. This requires rapidly improving our ability to monitor and predict major changes and exploring interventions to reduce warming to reduce or prevent them.
Scientists—here in the U.S. and internationally—have suggested that one of the most promising ways to reduce warming within a few years (or less) lies in one of the ways that nature can cool the Earth: increasing the reflection of sunlight from the atmosphere, or "solar climate intervention" (SCI). Solar climate intervention has potential to reduce impacts on vulnerable communities and prevent catastrophic changes. Is it effective? Can it be done safely? Substantial investment in climate and climate intervention research are required to answer these questions. Today we face unaddressed exposure to near-term catastrophic risk. We must invest in research, technology innovation and international scientific cooperation to chart a course that keeps the world’s people safe and its ecosystems stable.
Our recommendations to the incoming Biden-Harris administration cut across science, national security, social justice, and international cooperation but all are centered on the imperatives of ensuring the safety of people and stability of natural systems in the next few decades. A summary of our recommendations is below and you can read the complete report here.
Lead and foster international engagement on responding to near-term climate risks.
A number of factors make international governance of potential climate interventions challenging—but these challenges underscore the need for effective governance. Coordination between international bodies on the potential implementation of climate interventions will require close collaboration and alignment across a wide-ranging and diverse group of stakeholders. There are a number of wise steps the Biden-Harris administration should take early to engage with international forums. In addition to re-affirming the U.S. commitment to the Paris Agreement, the incoming administration should call on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to hold an expert meeting on near-term abrupt change risks and rapid climate interventions as well as issue a Special Report on the topic. The Biden-Harris administration should also support current and future assessment of solar climate intervention by the Montreal Protocol.
In shaping its approach to international engagement, the Biden-Harris administration should pursue an international decision-making process that considers how to ensure "two safeties," the safety of a warming climate and the safety of using climate interventions, should they be warranted, where decisions are weighed by the international community through an approach that is both cooperative and based in science. Weighing risks of potential action versus risks of potential inaction is key to informed decision making. The Biden-Harris administration can also play a role in assessing international governance bodies and work with a range of organizations to formulate an international governance structure for science-based decision making on climate intervention.
Substantially increase investments in climate research, climate intervention research, and reduction of short-lived climate forcers
Expanding government resources dedicated to climate intervention research is the single biggest step the Biden-Harris administration can take to address near-term climate risks. Such research will help support a safe climate for future generations and has remained an area of bipartisan support. Policymakers will need a strong foundation of knowledge to be able to make informed, science-based decisions related to escalating climate impacts and the potential use of climate interventions. The knowledge can only be gained with an immediate and robust expansion of research efforts.
To accelerate progress, the Biden-Harris administration should substantially increase investments in climate research and earth system prediction, with the potential for an "Operation Warp Speed" focused on climate prediction. The incoming administration should also prioritize fast-acting solutions and establish a national climate intervention research effort to assess the benefits and risks of methods to rapidly reduce warming. This would allow the U.S. to build capabilities to inform assessment of solar climate interventions within five years, accelerating relevant research efforts in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Energy (DOE), National Science Foundation (NSF), National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA), and other agencies.
Work with science-based international partners to grow capacity in vulnerable communities to contribute to climate intervention research.
Climate interventions to reduce warming globally or regionally may be especially important for protecting vulnerable communities both domestically and internationally. These communities are disproportionately harmed by climate impacts, while simultaneously facing strong disadvantages in their capacity to adapt. The Biden-Harris administration should prioritize working with science-based international partners to grow capacity in these communities to contribute to climate intervention research and grow the foundation for representation in scientific and policy discourses.
Promote the engagement of women and people of color in research and policy for climate intervention.
In recent years, many women have emerged in the field of climate intervention research, including in positions of leadership, on scientific assessment panels, as conference chairs and keynotes and, in at least one case, as an all-female research team. People of color are less present, in both climate and climate intervention research and policy. Near-term climate risks and responses disproportionately affect people of color, making their involvement in responses, including climate intervention, imperative. A Biden-Harris administration should promote the engagement of women and people of color in scientific research and policy dialogue on climate intervention.
Incorporate climate change into the national defense mission.
Climate impacts pose direct threats to U.S. national security in terms of strategic infrastructure and operations and also threaten global security by increasing instability in vulnerable regions and ecosystems, such as in the Arctic.
As climate impacts increase, other nations are beginning to invest in major efforts in weather modification and research in SCI, including efforts in China, India, the Middle East and developing nations. Lacking information on these approaches, the United States is unprepared to assess and respond to international efforts. including whether to cooperate in these activities or work to constrain them. To address these critical gaps in the Nation’s security portfolio, the Biden-Harris administration should include climate change as a part of the national defense mission. It should expand the Department of Defense's (DoD) climate and weather observation and prediction capabilities, and collaboration with civilian science agencies. To prevent strategic surprise and respond to international efforts, it should drive toward a five-year assessment of solar climate interventions.
Moving forward
With a new administration comes new opportunities to combat Earth's warming and secure a safe climate for our future generations. As President-elect Biden has said, "This is the United States of America. There is not a single thing we have not been able to accomplish once we set our minds to it. Together, we can and will meet the challenge of this climate emergency." At SilverLining, we share this optimism and look forward to working with the Biden-Harris administration to create progress on this critically important issue over the coming years.
To learn more about SilverLinining's work, visit our website here and read our Ensuring A Safe Climate report for U.S. policymakers here.
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